ETHUSD broke and closed convincingly clear of the $175–180 resistance zone on 11 May. Price action is currently capped by the upper bounds of an ascending channel, and more importantly, a cluster of sellers at the psychological $200 level. $200 is a key level for the pair. Should ETHUSD succeed in breaking and holding above, this would form a bullish case.
We are currently monitoring two alternative scenarios:
(1) a bullish breakout of a long-term ascending triangle, which a close above $200 would validate.
Of note also is that after tracking BTC prices closely for most of the past six months, ETHUSD is lagging behind the recent BTC push. It could be overdue for a catchup rally.
(2) Alternatively, we see also the formation of an extended rising wedge; should ETHUSD fail at $200 levels, a further breakdown below the bottom trend line of the rising wedge would be ominous for the pair.